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Elements of a Profitable Trading Strategy
by Michael R. Bryant
Trading systems or strategies use a predefined set of
trading rules to generate objective buy and sell signals. While the variety of
trading systems is almost limitless, most profitable trading systems have
certain elements in common. Whether you build your own strategy or purchase one,
trading a strategy with these characteristics will maximize your chances of
success.
Most profitable trading strategies have the right
level of complexity in their trading logic. These goldilocks
strategies are not too simple and not too complex. The financial markets
are certainly complex. An overly simple strategy is unlikely to respond
adequately to the market’s complexity. On the other hand, if the
strategy is overly complex, it may be over-fit to the market. An
over-fit strategy is one that doesn’t generalize well to data other than
that on which it was based. Complex strategies tend to be over-sensitive
to changes in the market and need constant adjustment and modification.
A profitable trading strategy needs to have
realistic entries and exits. For example, it’s easy in most scripting
languages to specify limit orders for a trade entry. In practice, a
limit order may not be filled, depending on the liquidity of the market
and how many traders have orders in front of yours. Similarly, it may be
possible to specify a market-on-close exit, but if the order is placed
exactly at the market’s close, there will be no opportunity to fill it.
The simulation results, on the other hand, may not take this into
account. Also, some markets may not allow certain types of orders. If
your market only allows market orders, a strategy based on stop orders
may not be profitable if the strategy logic has to be converted to
market orders.
Many traders focus more on trade entries than exits. However, in many cases,
exits are more important. One essential element of strategy exit logic is that a
profitable trading system should contain exits for both exiting at a loss and
exiting at a profit. An example of exiting at a loss is a protective (money
management) stop. A target exit, based on a limit order, is an example of
exiting at a profit. Without the ability to exit a losing trade, the losses in a
trading strategy are potentially unlimited. Similarly, without the ability to
exit a profitable trade, it’s likely to turn into a loss.
Although it sounds obvious, an important element of a profitable trading
strategy is correct coding. Certainly, if you develop a system yourself, it’s
important to verify that the system code does what you intend. It’s tempting to
start testing a newly code strategy for profitability as soon as the code
verifies or compiles, but it’s important to check that the intended logic was
properly coded first.
Another characteristic that’s required for profitability is reasonable cost
assumptions. Trading costs include commissions, fees, and slippage. The latter
is defined as the difference between the order price and the price at which the
order is filled. A realistic amount for slippage depends on the market and the
type of order. In some markets, stop orders have less slippage than market
orders, whereas limit orders have zero slippage (although they may not be
filled). If your trading platform has built-in logic to convert limit orders to
market orders, then slippage would need to be assumed even for limit orders.
Assuming too little slippage can mean the difference between a profitable system
and a losing one.
In general, the most profitable systems are the most consistent ones.
Demonstrating consistent profitability over a long period of time means the
system works well in a variety of market conditions. Trading systems that have
extended flat or drawdown periods are clearly tailored to certain types of
market conditions. If those conditions don’t manifest in the future, there’s no
reason to expect the strategy to be profitable. Also, the historical performance
results should be based on realistic assumptions for starting equity and risk.
If the stated performance is based on a much higher starting account size than
you’ll have or the strategy requires taking on more risk than you can tolerate,
the strategy may not be profitable for you.
Finally, profitable trading strategies have good real-time or out-of-sample
results. Trading systems are typically developed using price data for one or
more markets. The data over which the strategy is initially developed is
referred to as the in-sample data set. Once a strategy is developed, it should
always be tested on a second set of price data that was not used during
development. This is called the out-of-sample data set. Only strategies that are
profitable on out-of-sample data are likely to be profitable in the future. Once
a strategy is deployed, it can be tracked live -- either simulated or with real
money. Profitable real-time tracking results are the final arbiter of
profitability.
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